Guarantee Games in 2010

Colin Cowherd has this thing called the Guarantee Gong, where he predicts a game before it happens. He used it against my poor Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl and also used it for the L.A. Lakers just recently. Now I'm not as much of a blowhard as Cowherd is, but there are some games out there where I know before the whistle blows what's going to happen. Here are a few games to bet on:

1. Virginia Tech to beat Boise State. Boise State's going to come into this game with the highest ranking in their history. Virginia Tech? It's just looking for a marquee win, any marquee win, before the season. This might be a match of the haven't-done-its. How many times has Virginia Tech played, and miserably lost to, ranked opponents before the season began? There's been a number, for sure. LSU? Lost 48-7. Alabama? Lost 34-24. USC? Lost 24-13. Conversely, when has Boise went on the road, in a hostile road environment, and beat a ranked team? Never? If you look at what these teams DON'T bring, instead of what they do, you might get a clearer picture. Simply put, this might be as good a team as the Broncos field, but the depth and talent isn't there for the Broncos. They do return their entire offense, but so does Tech. And without Wilcox, another subtraction to an already pilfered Broncos coaching staff, can the Broncos play defense? Everyone is circling Boise State in this game, so go the other way. Take VT and the points.

2. Ohio State to beat Miami. Some polls have Miami as high as 4 in their polls. And they were okay, at best, last year, which shows how easily pollers can be swayed by recruiting (which Miami undoubtedly has a reputation for). Sure they start strong, but without the right coach, Miami can sort of become a lackluster team. And Randy Shannon isn't the right coach. Still, they will compete in this game, as OSU has less time to prepare for the quick pro-style/option offense Miami likes to run. But without an overpowering defense against an OSU team that returns the majority of it's offensive talent, look for the Buckeyes to come away with the first key non-conference win they've earned in the last three years.

3. Nebraska to beat Texas. This is a penciled game for Husker fans. There is no reason to lose it, and the coaching staff is good enough to not screw it up. Take the Huskers. Big.

4. Washington to beat BYU. BYU has gotten a lot of slack for losing to teams it shouldn't lose to. It's the curse of the one-game season, really. Beating Oklahoma is great sure, but when you can't beat Florida State? You are Las Vegas Bowl-bound, then. BYU is going into this game thinking it's the better team, better program. Right now, it sure seems like it. But this is Washington's game, and Jake Locker is the best player in the country. Washington has it's quarterback, BYU needs it's own. And you could also argue, quite convincingly, Washington has the better coach in Steve Sarkisian. Take Washington to cover and win.

5. Alabama to beat Penn State. Penn State is respectable and they should cover this game. Can they beat two SEC opponents in a row? Not so fast. Replacing a core on defense isn't a problem for the Nittany Lions. They do that anyway. What is a problem is finding a new quarterback and grooming him immediately. Alabama seemingly has two to three guys who are better then their own starter! Penn State? They just need to find one. They probably will in Kevin Newsome, but whether they can pull it off in time is anyone's guess. Penn State covers, but loses the game.

And those are the picks! 73 days and counting!

Texas in the Age of Disillusionment

A couple of weeks ago, somewhere in Austin, Texas, the regents for the University of Texas got together and sat down to talk about possible conference realignment. The discussion was pointed - if the Big 12 didn't pony up the cash, there was no reason to stay - and the president, Bill Powers had a short conversation with his athletic director, Deloss Dodds, about what was in Texas' best interests.

Dodds probably told Powers one of two things: first, Texas didn't need the money, but they needed some exposure. The idea of a Pac-16 was a charming one, but having Texas float it's own boat with it's own network? - that was an idea touched by Midas. Second, Dodds probably told Powers that time was needed. Dodds saw the Big 12 like most saw the Alamo - a good place for a last stand. The imminency of two superpowers colliding - one from the west, one from the north - had made the Texan soil more prone to erosion than it once had been, but everyone knew not to "mess with Texas," and the school was already viable enough, financially and academically, to hold it's own ground until the current affiliation proved unnecessary. Essentially, time could be bought.

It was generally assumed that there were two golden tickets for expanding conferences not named the Southeastern Conference. And those were Texas and Notre Dame. Both were elusive, and both had such a firm grasp over the media that they could change public opinion by leaking controlled stories to internet affiliates (such as Orangebloods.com and various Twitter accounts). The sway of instant news from the Big 12, for readers and those involved, provided a college football rush equivalent to that of surfing a popsicle to safety in a tsunami. For once, outsiders had the chance to get in on the boardroom dance as the previously staid Pac-10 marshaled it's forces and dove in for the kill. It was mostly due to free access to internet sites smartly provided by Chip Brown and those at Texas, that a larger game than ever provided on the field, became more obvious to everyone.

What were the details of the new game? For starters, college basketball largely didn't matter and Kansas was (pun totally intended) "dust in the wind." Baylor was, and had always been, an afterthought. And there was a general consensus that if the Pac-10 succeeded, many schools would be left without a conference, and moreover (gasp!) a BCS golden ticket.

In short, "survival of the fittest" was becoming a way of dealing with increasing deficits in college football. Naturally, the weakest members of the herd turned towards Austin for guidance. They half expected Texas to kill them as well.

And then Texas declined - which was a quizzical move to those outside of Austin. Not so shockingly, a television press conference was issued not from the offices of the Big 12 in Dallas, but from Austin itself. Money was instantly provided. The BCS could continue. The Big 12 would perish no more.

However, the weaker schools had been forced into handing Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma their lunch money for survival. And they agreed to revenue-sharing that would greatly decrease their chances to compete. If there had been an age of innocence in the Big 12, it had been in 1994, when the conference agreed to work together toward a greater good. But even Tom Osborne, Nebraska legend and athletic director, knew such a goal couldn't reach fruition in a Dallas-dominated midwest, and sixteen years later, he took his team and left. So did Colorado.

Thus, an exodus of members became the dilemma of Texas in the age of disillusionment. If the conference fell, it would surely be "Katy bar the door" for everyone. And when Dodds talked with Powers about positioning their school for the new era of superconferences, which had been pointed to, hinted at, talked about and everything but agreed to, he undoubtedly talked dollars. Because that's what works now. Success can be had for indefinite amounts of time, but when it's not, there's always a greener pasture. And in the game of Texas hold'em, stay or go, that pasture could always be had.